Two big contests should currently be taking place in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory ( FCT). Public attention is on the historic presidential primaries of the two major political parties-the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party(PDP).
Between today and tomorrow, or by Monday, the two platforms should be presenting their candidates for next year’s poll to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the electorate.
Either of the two flagbearers will succeed President Muhammadu Buhari, whose tenure expires on May 29, 2023. But, while PDP is forging ahead, there is no sign of readiness on the part of the ruling party.
If PDP produces a candidate tomorrow and the APC candidate is nowhere to be found, it would mean that the APC forced the hand of the electoral commission to amend the electoral timetable.
Many factors will shape the contests. They include the credentials of aspirants, their structures, cross-regional support, experience and may be, capability. However, delegates are not captivated by the manifestos or programmes of action reeled out by aspirants. This should have been the core issue in a nation-state of despair. But, their preoccupation is money. It may therefore, be assumed that the greatest factor is the deep purse of the aspirants.
If one of the deciding factors at the primaries will not be manifestos echoed by last minute speeches of aspirants at the nomination convention, then, Nigeria will not be witnessing primaries of quality. The state of affairs underscores the level of political culture, the level of national development and the immaturity of the political system. The delegates have no independent opinion. The distribution is as follows in PDP: Northwest 193, Southwest 143, Northcentral 130, Southsouth 129, Northeast 116 and Southeast 100. It is curious that the Southeast, which has the least number of delegates, has the highest number of aspirants.
In APC, the Southwest has the highest number of contenders. They all belong to one political family. It means the region lacks a coordinated agenda. But, of the six from the Southwest, it appears only their leader has the chance of getting the ticket, if there will be no surprises.
Specifically, zoning remains a factor, but it depends on the relative capacity of contenders to manipulate ethnicity and religion, or frontally insist on the previous tradition of rotation that is being threatened by lack of consistency, insincerity and new strategy. The annulment of zoning was tantamount to a disregard for diversity, equity and justice. The result may be a fierce competition between the North and the South.
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